Rent-versus-buy planning for US households

Rent or buy? See how each choice fits your household’s finances.

Compare renting, buying now, buying later, or starting smaller — with your take-home pay, debts, childcare, and expected life changes in the plan. See the cash each option needs, the monthly budget it leaves, and how the paths compare over 30 years.

Free to build — all eight steps, no account, nothing leaves your browser. $59, once, plus sales tax where it applies, to see what it projects: the cash-ready date, the thirty-year comparison and the printable record. Twelve months, no renewal.

4  paths compared · starter home optional 30 years  the standard horizon, and adjustable 8  guided steps · free to build $59  one payment for the answer · 14-day refund · plus sales tax where it applies Runs in your browser.  No account. Your figures stay on your device.
01 · How it works

The answer depends on your household, not on the average one.

Renting and buying are usually compared on price and rent alone. That leaves out the things that decide whether a purchase fits: what actually reaches your account each month, what you already owe, what childcare will cost from the year it starts, and what happens to your pay when someone takes leave. This model puts those in the comparison.

What it compares
Renting, buying now, renting then buying, and — if you want it — starting smaller and upgrading later.
→ Side by side, on the same household figures.
What it shows for each
The cash needed to buy, the monthly budget left afterwards, and where each path finishes over 30 years.
→ Together, because a path can win on one and fail on another.
Why all three at once

Because they disagree. The path that ends with the most money is often the one with the thinnest months in between, and a home you can afford to close on can still leave you short every month after. Seeing the three together is the point: you find out where a path wins and where it costs you, and you make the call.

02 · Compare your options

What a short rent-versus-buy check leaves out.

A short check usually asks for a price, a rent and a rate, and answers on those alone. That is a useful starting point and this site has one. What it cannot show is how the purchase sits alongside the rest of your household — deductions already coming out of your pay, loans you are still repaying, childcare from the year it begins, a car to replace, a period of leave. The right column lists what the full plan asks for instead.

🧮 Generic Housing Calculator A typical affordability or rent-vs-buy tool · static illustration
What a lender's affordability tool says
🏠 You can afford a $1.39M home
Based on a standard 28/36 debt-to-income rule. The lender stops at approval — affordability, not survivability.
What a rent-vs-buy tool says
🏆 Buying wins by $1.08M over 30 years
Buy path → $3.98M  (equity $3.73M + investments $254k) · Rent path → $2.90M
⚡ Free · No email required

Try the five-minute look on your numbers.

Skip the single-answer trap. The free calculator runs three paths — Buy now; Rent, then buy; and Rent & invest — then answers the question you arrived with: renting against the best of the buying paths, on the same household. Ranking the top two would often compare two ways of buying, which is not the choice you are making. The full planner adds Starter home, then upgrade when you plan one, and shows them side by side.

Try the five-minute look → 5 inputs · compares renting against the best buying path

What these calculators can't see.

Whether a tool tells you what you can afford or whether buying beats renting, it can't see any of these. Each one changes whether the number is actually survivable.

  • Your actual take-home pay. No federal tax, no state tax, no city tax (NYC adds 3.876% on top). No 401k contributions or employer match. No HSA, no FSA.
  • Cash flow stress in the middle decades. Year 30 might look fine while Year 7 has you draining brokerage every month to make the mortgage.
  • Kids. No childcare ($25k+/yr per kid), no 529 contributions, no age-banded costs from daycare → after-school → self-sufficient.
  • The Rent → Buy path. Rent for N years, then buy at what it costs by then. Never offered by these calculators.
  • The Starter Home → Upgrade path. Two transactions, capital-gains math on the sale, often house-poor in the middle years.
  • Sequence-of-returns risk. A bear market in your first 5 retirement years can erase a decade of gains. The simple calc assumes a flat 7%.
  • Property tax by town. A $1M house in town A vs. town B can differ by $15k/year, every year, for 30 years.
  • Existing cash, brokerage balances, student loans. Where you start changes what's possible.
  • Job loss, sabbaticals, parental leave. Real income isn't a flat line.
  • Refinancing windows. "What if rates drop to 4.5% in year 5?" Has a real answer.
  • The answer to "what if we just waited 1–3 years?" The simple calc can't tell you.
The lender says you can afford $1.39M; the rent-vs-buy tool says buying wins by ~$1M. Both answer a narrow question and stop. Run the same household through the full 4-path model and even a cheaper $1.15M Buy now is flagged 🟡 CAUTION, with Rent, then buy the stronger path.

The free five-minute look improves on the generic tools by ranking three paths on projected wealth. The full model adds the survivability check: cash stress, tax calibration, liquidity, FI timing, and downside scenarios — so you can see whether the path that wins on paper is one your household can actually live through. Try the free calculator →
03 · The paths it compares

Three paths every time, four when you plan an upgrade. Year by year, in parallel.

Most calculators force a binary. Real households compromise. These are the four strategies the model evaluates simultaneously, using one shared set of assumptions about your income, taxes, kids, and retirement.

PATH 01

Rent & invest

Assumes you keep renting and invest what you would have put into a deposit, plus the monthly difference, at the return you enter.

PATH 02

Buy now

Buy at the start of the plan, at the deposit and rate you enter. Neither is filled in for you.

PATH 03

Rent, then buy

Rent for N years to build a larger cushion, then buy at the appreciated price. The path short calculators leave out.

PATH 04

Starter home, then upgrade

Buy a modest starter at Y0. Sell and roll into a forever home a few years later. Two transactions, double the friction, often-overlooked tax mechanics.

04 · A worked example

One household, and what the model actually says.

An invented couple, so the figures can be shown in full. They take home $11,800 a month between them, spend $4,200 on living costs, pay $3,600 in rent and $450 a month on a student loan that clears in 2030. They have $95,000 in cash, $25,000 invested, and want to keep $30,000 untouched. The home they have in mind is $750,000, and they are thinking about buying in two years.

The cash to buy
$207,500 at today’s price — $218,005 by October 2028, when they would actually buy.
→ Down payment, closing costs and moving, plus the reserve they keep.
When they have it
December 2028, two months after the date they picked.
→ So buying in October means dipping into the reserve.
The monthly budget after buying
$1,342 left in the first month of owning, down from $3,550 while renting.
→ Before the childcare and pay changes they have not entered yet.
The price their figures support
$730,000 in today’s money — $774,457 at an October 2028 closing, needing $183,125 in cash on the day.
→ The highest price that funds every month and keeps the reserve intact.
And over thirty years

Too close to call: $265,931 separates rent & invest from rent, then buy after 30 years. Changing rent growth on its own moves the two apart by $1,204,891 — several times the gap itself — so the model says the comparison is too close to call rather than picking a winner. Buy now is left out of the comparison entirely, because on these figures the purchase does not fund itself.

That is the shape of most real answers: the long-run difference is often small and uncertain, while the near-term figures — whether the cash is there, what the reserve does, what is left each month — are easier to inspect, though they still rest on what you enter. Those are what the plan is for.

Every figure here is output from the planner for the inputs above. The description above leaves some assumptions unsaid, so they are said here: 20% down, a 6.5% mortgage rate, $5,000 of moving and setup costs, 1.8% property tax, $2,200 a year for insurance, no mortgage insurance and home prices growing 3% a year. Everything not named is what the planner starts you with, and every one of them is shown and editable in the plan itself — several of these fields start blank on purpose, because a guessed property tax is worse than an empty one. The household is invented so the numbers can be shown; yours will differ. Read their full report — the same one the pass produces.

05 · Household details and life changes

The details that change the comparison.

A rent-versus-buy answer moves on the things a short calculator never asks about. These are the ones the plan lets you put in, each on the date it happens.

Eight guided steps, free to build

Your goal, income, accounts, spending and debts, home costs, life changes, assumptions, review. Your own figures are never filled in for you and a blank is never treated as zero. Where a starting assumption is needed — a growth rate, a closing-cost percentage — it is shown, labelled as an assumption, and yours to change. Tick what applies to you and the rest stays out of the way.

A first comparison before you fill anything in

Five questions you can answer from memory — rent, the price you have in mind, savings, take-home pay, and what actually gets set aside. It runs the same engine as the full plan and lists every assumption it had to make for you.

A checklist of what is still missing

Every entry the plan still needs, named and grouped by step, with a link straight to the field. Nothing is guessed at to fill a gap, and a figure you have not typed yet is never marked as an error.

Read it off your paystub

A one-time setup takes the withholding and deductions from a real paycheck stub — federal, state and local tax withheld, HSA, FSA, employer benefits, retirement — instead of approximating them from your salary. It does not calculate your tax: it uses the figures your employer already worked out.

One earner or several

Enter a combined take-home figure, or add earners one at a time — each with their own pay, deductions, retirement contributions and dated career changes. A raise, a leave, a job change or a second income starting mid-plan are all entered against the person they belong to.

Rent that rises differently later

A below-market or stabilised rent now, and market rises from the month you move. A single rent-growth rate across thirty years is an assumption dressed as a neutral default, and it quietly decides the rent-versus-buy answer.

Whether owning would actually be carryable

Four measured things, not a grade: housing as a share of take-home pay in the first full year owned, how many months of living costs the cash and investments left after buying would cover, what is left each month once housing, living costs, debts and saving are paid, and how many months in the projection cannot fund themselves. The 35% housing share is a common planning benchmark rather than a rule, and the review says so where it uses it.

Modelled financial-independence age

For each path, the year the modelled portfolio could cover that path’s expenses without your salary. You can rerun it at a lower return to see how far the date moves.

Modelled price limit

The highest price your figures support on the leading ownership path, in today’s money and again at the month you would buy. When your target price is out of reach, it also lists the later months at which it comes into reach, so you can see whether the answer is “no” or “not yet”.

What the answer is hanging on

Every assumption the plan can vary on its own, moved by an amount that would not be surprising, with the whole plan re-run every time and the results ranked. Not by how much money they move — most lift every path at once and change nothing — but by how far they move the gap between the leading path and its nearest rival. No probabilities, no simulated futures: each row says exactly what was changed and by how much. A row that does not apply to your household — pay growth, when you have set it per earner — says so and is not counted as tested.

Brokerage drawdown, and what happens after it

When cash would go negative the model sells investments to cover it, and charges the withdrawal tax rate you entered. When there is nothing left to sell, it does not quietly carry on: it records the worst month, the first month the plan cannot fund itself, and marks that path as not funded. No silent overdrafts.

Liquidity-adjusted view

Splits net worth into illiquid home equity vs. truly liquid (cash + brokerage). Two paths can show identical NW with wildly different sleep-at-night metrics.

Kids and 529s

Up to 6 dependents. Childcare phases (daycare → after-school → self-sufficient), age-banded kid costs, 529 contributions starting at birth, college-cost waves.

Cars, plural

Up to 3 vehicle slots. Off / Buy New / Buy Used / Existing / Owned Outright / Lease, with per-path purchase timing. The Rent & invest path might keep an older car longer than the Buy now path.

Projection against reality

Read a Rocket Money, Mint or bank CSV in your browser — the file is never uploaded — and it suggests a budget per category from your own rolling spend, setting aside anything already entered elsewhere so nothing is counted twice. Then record what your balances actually were, month by month, and watch them against what the plan said.

Refinance toggle

Optionally reset your mortgage rate mid-projection. Closing costs deduct from cash in the refi year. The "what if rates drop to 4.5%" what-if, modeled honestly.

Optional modules

A simple equity grant — shares vesting, or options valued at today’s spread — job loss, sabbatical, parental leave. Collapsed by default; expand only the ones that apply to you. No paying the complexity tax for features you don't use.

Checked on every change

An automated suite runs before anything ships: hand-computed expectations rather than recordings of whatever the code happened to produce, frozen results from earlier engine versions that fail if a single projected figure moves, and browser checks that drive the real app end to end.

Back it up, and take it with you

Every saved plan in one file, and a restore that adds what is missing without ever overwriting what is already there. Export a single plan to open on another machine. There is no account, so a backup is yours to keep — though a plan file is data, not the app: you need this site, or a copy of it, to open one again.

06 · Who it is for

The honest qualifier, before you pay.

This isn't a 30-second answer machine. It's a serious model. Five minutes below will tell you whether it'll actually help you, or just frustrate you.

This is for you if…

  • You're a couple or solo earner, roughly late 20s to early 40s, facing a first or trade-up home decision.
  • You're in a high-cost market and the "just buy" math no longer obviously works.
  • You have a browser. That is the whole requirement — phone, laptop, anything. Nothing to install, nothing to keep up to date.
  • You want a real model. Not a calculator that hides its assumptions and tells you what you want to hear.
  • You're willing to spend twenty minutes on eight guided steps in exchange for a 30-year answer (and longer if you want it calibrated to your actual paystub).

Probably not for you if…

  • You want a one-screen verdict in under a minute. The free calculator does that, and it is honest about what it had to assume to get there.
  • You're a real estate investor or landlord modeling rental income. (Wrong tool. This is single-residence household planning.)
  • You're looking for tax advice, legal advice, or a referral to a lender.
  • You want your plan synced across devices or stored in an account. There is no account and no server — your plan lives in your browser, and you export a file to move it.
  • You want a recommendation rather than a comparison under your own assumptions.
07 · FAQs

The questions everyone asks before they pay.

How do I know the math is right?
Every assumption is a labelled field you can see and change — mortgage amortisation, capital gains, take-home pay, compounding, refinance costs, drawdown. None of it is buried in a constant. Behind that, the engine is held to an automated check suite that runs on every change — hand-computed expectations rather than recordings of whatever the code happened to produce, plus frozen results from earlier versions that fail if a single figure moves, and browser checks that drive the real app end to end. It also refuses to guess: a blank is never treated as zero, and where a number is genuinely a fact about your town rather than something anyone can average — property tax is the one that matters — it asks you instead of filling it in.
This used to be a spreadsheet. What happened?
It began as an Excel workbook, and the web app is now the product. The reasons it was a spreadsheet no longer hold: your figures still stay on your machine, because the planner runs in your browser with no account and nothing uploaded, and a plan saves to a file you keep. It is not a black box either — every assumption is visible and editable, each says where it came from, and one panel shows which of them moves the comparison most. What the browser adds is that it works on a phone, it remembers your plan, and it can compare what you projected against what actually happened.
What if I do not trust my own inputs?
Good — you should not, on their own. The planner moves each assumption by a realistic amount, one at a time, re-runs the whole thing, and ranks them by how far they move the gap between the leading path and its nearest rival. Not by how much money they move: most assumptions lift every path at once and change nothing about the decision. There are no probabilities and no simulation of thousands of futures, because this product has no basis for either. Each row states exactly what was changed and by how much, and whether that move is plausible for you is your judgement.
How long does it take to set up?
A rough first pass is about twenty minutes across eight guided steps, and you can stop anywhere — nothing is filled in for you, and a checklist shows what is still missing. Reading your own paystub into it takes another ten. Coming back each quarter to record what actually happened takes about five, which is the point of it being a planner rather than a one-off answer.
I am single. Does this still work?
Yes. One earner is the default; you add a second only if there is one. The same paths run either way. What changes is the figures you enter, and the answer follows from those.
What does it not do?
It does not calculate your tax. It uses the deductions on your actual paystub rather than approximating a multi-state tax code that changes every year, because a wrong tax number in a consumer tool is worse than no tax number — and it says so on the page instead of hiding it. It does not model rental property, equity compensation beyond a simple grant, or a mid-plan move between states. And it does not tell you what to do.
So what does it actually tell me?
What your own figures say — and often what they say is that it is too close to call. On a thirty-year horizon four paths can finish within a percent of each other, which is less than a single ordinary assumption moves, and the planner says exactly that rather than crowning a winner. It will also tell you the highest price your entered assumptions support, the month you reach the cash to buy while keeping your reserve, which assumption moves the comparison most, and which paths look strong on wealth but leave no monthly room. It is a modelling tool, not a substitute for a CPA or a fee-only planner.
Is there a free version?
Yes, and it runs the same engine as the paid one — there is no second, simpler model that could drift out of agreement with the first. The free calculator takes five figures you know from memory, ranks the paths, and lists every assumption it had to make for you, including the one it is least sure about. Building the full plan is free too: children and childcare stages, loans, bonuses, a car, a period of leave and the paystub reader are all in the free plan builder, and you can save and export what you enter. The Homebuying Pass unlocks the projections — the long-term comparison, the purchase timing, the printable record and progress tracking.
10 · What It Costs

One price, twelve months. No subscription, no account.

Building your plan is free — all eight steps, your real paystub, your children, your loans, saved and backed up, nothing uploaded. What you pay for is what the model projects from it: when you are cash-ready, what renting and buying do over thirty years, and which assumption the whole thing is hanging on.

Free · no email, no account
$0

Build the whole thing

  • The quick rent-or-buy comparison: five figures you know from memory, on the same engine
  • All eight steps: people, pay, paystub deductions, bonuses, balances, debts, home costs
  • Children and childcare with real dates, a car to replace, leave, a refinance, a 529
  • Your pay and deductions read from a text-based paycheck stub in your browser, and never uploaded — a scan or a photo is shown to you and typed in by hand
  • Save as many plans as you like, and back them up to a file
Start building →

You do not have to decide now. Build the whole plan in the free plan builder first, see how much of your situation it handles, and buy the Homebuying Pass at the point where you want the projections — or not at all, and keep what you entered.